Tuesday, November 3, 2009

So, what now?

Well "Call me Dave" is in a right pickle now as he's going to have to put up or shut up.

Czechs force Cameron EU rethink 

Conservative leader David Cameron will be forced to announce a new policy on Europe on Wednesday, after the Lisbon Treaty cleared its final hurdle.
The treaty is set to become law across Europe on 1 December after Czech President Vaclav Klaus became the last EU leader to sign it.
Mr Cameron has said he was disappointed by President Klaus's decision.
The Tory leader is under pressure to hold a post-ratification referendum if he wins the next election.
Eurosceptics have accused Mr Cameron of reneging on a promise, made in a 2007 article for The Sun newspaper, in which he said: "Today, I will give this cast iron guarantee: If I become PM a Conservative government will hold a referendum on any EU treaty that emerges from these negotiations."
So, it's squeaky bottom time for Dave, he's going to give a news conference tomorrow and tell us what he's going to do. Either way someone's not going to be happy, though on balance the EUsceptics dominate the Conservative MP's and the grass root Conservatives these days far more than the EUphiles. Not that it will make things easy if as many suspect Cameron is a soft EUsceptic himself and wants to avoid a major split in the party.
So, he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, yet even if he allows a post Lisbon referendum it wont make a difference as it can't really be renegotiated, the EU wont permit that.

So what can he do (apart from a total fudge that will please no-one and end his leadership)

  1. Offer a referendum as to whether the government should begin the process of leaving the EU.
  2. Should the people reject the EU then start the 2 year process by which we leave.
  3. Legislate a total cost analysis of our EU contributions (oddly enough it's never been done, can't think why) to be completed within the 2 year timeframe.
  4.  After 2 years either leave or hold a second referendum in or out with the results of the cost analysis available to all.
What he can't do is nothing and I doubt he'll hold the top job long if he tries to keep us in, in my opinion the only way David Cameron will be able to lead the future Conservative party is if he leads us out of the EU. I also think the Tories will lose the next general election if he doesn't nail this issue too.

So, decisions, decisions.

Update Sky News

Shadow foreign secretary William Hague says a Tory government will not hold a referendum on the EU Treaty.
 Bastards.

2 annotations:

scunnert said...

This was always going to play out this way. The elite want the EU but posture as if they don't. They promise a referendum then renege. What's new?

Barking Spider said...

Cameron is at last forced to show his true colours!