Sunday, September 20, 2009

Quo Vadis England?

In a few months time, assuming that nothing upsets the natural progression of these things (and there are some bloggers out there who have their suspicions of foul play) the UK will have a new government and a new Prime Minister, probably David Cameron.

Now "Call me Dave" is going to have his work cut out sorting out the mess that Labour have left as part of their scorched earth spite campaign. Whether he has the steel to do this, I don't know, I have my doubts as so far all I see is another Blair, a man groomed to be votable and precious little else, just another soundbite politician. Still sooner or later some sort of progress will be made, whether it's done by Cameron or A. N. Other. But this will be simple compared to the other problems lurking on the horizon.

What Cameron is going to have problems with is the herd of elephants in the room, of which English nationalism is only but one. The main one is the EU, if Lisbon is not ratified we'll have a referendum, it will be rejected by the people of the UK, the EU know this which is why they're desperately trying to get Ireland to say yes, though I suspect Ireland will be easy compared to getting the Czech president Vaclav Klaus to ratify it particularly as certain EUphiles have gone out of their way to insult the man.

Daniel Cohn-Bendit, chairman of Green Group, brought a European flag and presented it to Klaus Cohn-Bendit also said that he did not care about Klaus' opinions on the Treaty of Lisbon, that Klaus would simply have to sign it (although, under Czech law, the President is not obliged to follow the resolution of Parliament). Further, Brian Crowley told Klaus that the Irish wanted ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon and were insulted by Klaus' association with Declan Ganley and the lobby group Libertas. Klaus responded that "the biggest insult to the Irish people is not to accept the result of the referendum". replied, "You will not tell me what the Irish think. As an Irishman, I know it best." This visit was criticized by some in the media: "This bizarre confrontation...confirms the inability of the Euro-elite to accept that anyone holds different views from their own.

So, Ireland is not the end of the story, there is also a German court judicial review too and the conditions they are putting on the German government for signing the Lisbon Treaty mean that Germany would have sovereignty kept in certain areas which negates the treaty and wont be allowed by the EU.

I suspect we'll have our referendum whether the EU likes it or not.

Another elephant will be devolution and the proposed Scottish independence referendum, Cameron is determined to be PM over the UK, I think he'll manage it, but he might be the last. Scotland and the SNP will make hay over an English clique ruling over Scotland, pretty much the reverse of what's been happening in England over the Labour McMafia, save that the SNP are a fully fledged political party determined to put Scottish interests first and are a lot better at getting their own way than the vague English movement (so far).

Other problems Cameron will have are Quango's stuffed with Labour supporters and politically correct multiculty fanatics, but a few bills outlawing the worst of the excesses will soon resolve that problem.

Cameron will also be hoping for a honeymoon period and he might get one from the MSM, but if he thinks that the right wing part of blogosphere which was virulently opposed to Labour and their disastrous policies will lie down and play nice he's got another thing coming. To many of us the Tories are simply Blu Labour and we doubt things are going to change much under Dave. He might get a bit of breathing space with a grand repeal bill removing all the civil liberty abuses that Labour have put into law over the last 12 years, but any euphoria over that will be short lived. The UK populace no longer respect politicians in a way that would have been inconceivable 12 years ago at the fall of the Major government and we didn't much like them then!

There are a good few Tory supporting blogs out there of course, but many are of the Libertarian wing of the Conservatives and Cameron is on record as being no Libertarian, He explicitly rejected libertarianism saying the Tories were not just ideologically concerned with freedom. Well most Right wing Libertarian bloggers are and they're very good at getting their views across and attacking whoever's in power, Labour or Conservative. So I can't see an easy ride for Cameron in the blogosphere.

The final elephant I will allude to is English nationalism. Now certain Tories believe that they are the natural party of the English and whilst Englishness was subsumed by Britishness this may have been the case, but no more. Labours asymmetric devolution has popped the genie of English nationalism from the bottle and I don't think it's going back in there, certainly not for sops such as English votes for English Laws (evoel) or a reduction of Scottish MP's in Westminster. Not even if he scraps the Barnett Formula and resolves the West Lothian question. No, English nationalists want their own parliament and this is anathema to unionists and politicians in Westminster too as an English parliament would be very, very powerful and would soon reduce Westminster to impotence in the same way that Scottish MP's are a waste of space in Scotland as all power resides in Holyrood. So Cameron will be under a lot of pressure to reduce the democratic deficit the English face and I think this might be the straw that breaks the camels back, because Cameron can afford to offend the EU, can afford to lose Scotland, but he cannot afford to alienate the English, at least not for too long.

Now as for Labour, well they're looking at at least a generation in the political wilderness, few will forgive them for the utter mess they've made in the economy, their profligacy with taxpayers money nor the Quango empire building in direct opposition to the normal checks and balances of a democratic system. Their loading of politically correct placemen in these Quango's will also give the Tories quite a battle until as is the nature of things they are turfed out root and branch. Nor will their natural allies in the Unions be much of a help, the general public will have little sympathy for strikes over pay or jobs, particularly as the private sector has been hit so hard by the recession whilst the public sector has been cosseted by Labour keeping jobs and pensions intact.

Some have suggested that Labour might find a way back if they drape themselves with the Cross of St George as they have the the Saltire in Scotland, but even then few will trust them, their political record on so many things being abysmal. Certainly those of us who count ourselves as Libertarians as well as English nationalists have long memories of the reduction of civil liberties and the labelling of racist of any who loved England more than socialism by the footsoldiers of the left.

So, in conclusion I believe that the move towards an English Parliament is almost inevitable under the next government, we may not get one, but the pressure will not go away nor will it fade into the background. The genies out of the bottle and I don't think any of the mainstream big 3 parties have the skill to get it back. Sooner or later one of them will embrace the political will to give the English equality within the system and we'll have our parliament. Whether this will be under a federal system or an independent England, I don't care, to me the Union has seen its day, what we need to be doing is planning Englands future for the English, and not within the UK as it is now.

Update: Resistance is Useless has just blogged that indeed the Czechs are to delay the ratification of the Lisbon treaty until after the UK general election.

5 annotations:

scunnert said...

I don't see it myself. There is too much invested in the project to allow it to fail. Whatever it takes will be done to ensure the end of national sovereignty and identity. It's over.

Quiet_Man said...

Perhaps, but that's no reason not to go down into the long night quietly.

Andy said...

National soveignty and identity will be extinguished? I'm not so sure. I agree that the EU creature has immense power... but I'm not convinced that it will ultimately triumph. Dicatatorships don't, usually.

James Higham said...

So, Ireland is not the end of the story, there is also a German court judicial review too and the conditions they are putting on the German government for signing the Lisbon Treaty mean that Germany would have sovereignty kept in certain areas which negates the treaty and wont be allowed by the EU.

I hadn't looked much at Germany - how significant is their issue?

Quiet_Man said...

The German court referral is not a good possibility, however it does keep the EU very nervous and seems to be delaying things nicely until the UK general election. I think resistance to the EU within the core states is far more prevalent than the EU would care to admit. However I suspect only Ireland or the UK can deliver the knockout blow, which is why the decisions on ratifying are being delayed and strung out.